HOW CAN PAST EA LEVEL CHANGES INFORM US ABOUT FUTURE ANTHROPOGENICALLY DRIVEN SEA LEVEL CHANGES
Rough notes to guide
• Diagnosis encouraged
• Rate has increased over the last 100 years
• What is anthropogenically driven sea level? See AR5 IPCC projections change and compare with those of IPCC AR4 - what are the changes in two reports based on?
o Are these estimates conservative?
• How do we determine past sea level?.
o Remove temperature signal?
o Direct determination from corals.
Uncertainties must be taken into account
• Relative SLC (global mean which takes isostatic adjustment into account)
o Therefore is it helpful?
o mid-Pleistocene warm period (cant constrain dynamic topography) - world with no ice,
o Holocene case studies
o Look at rates of change not actual levels.
? Are they the same?
? Are they faster?
? How do they compare predicted rates?
o Equilibrium response – slow feedback e.g. SLR
o Don’t just consider next 100 years but beyond
Tip: Make your own diagrams, where possible, using NOAA, or Pangaea