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This assignment is worth 70 marks (35% of your final grade) This assignment has been designed to address the following subject learning objectives: •be able to critically interpret the risk management concept; •be able to interpret risk through modelling techniques; •be able to determine the probability, frequency and consequences of a risk event occurring. Theory (20 marks) Please evaluate the following question. Your evaluation requires you to prepare and defend a chosen position: ``Knowledge can be divided into uncertainty and perfect knowledge. Where does risk fit into this spectrum?`` (Hint: Evaluate the measurable component of risk and where it sits on the spectrum) Workplace application (45 marks) Identify how your work case problem would benefit if more reliable quantitative analysis and forecasts were available. (Ideally you should the same work case problem from the first assignment, but if it does not lend itself well to this assignment you may choose another problem from your workplace). Your research requires you to: 1. Collect as much relevant data about the work case problem as possible. Analyse the data using descriptive statistics and then plot the data in appropriate graphical forms. (5 marks) Assess the diagrams by determining the key characteristics of the data - i.e. summarise the patterns and interpret what these patterns are likely indicate about the data to date (10 marks) 2. Use one quantitative forecasting techniques to develop forecasts from the data - for example naive, moving average, exponential smoothing and/or regression (10 marks) 3. - Explain your key findings from the quantitative analysis. In doing so, apply the predictions to your work case problem and determine how these affects might change the future outcomes for your workplace. (10 marks) - Under what circumstances are qualitative techniques suitable for forecasting? Explain how qualitative techniques could be applied to your chosen work case problem to improve future outcomes (10 marks) My project is about ERP (SAP Implementation) Risk management Assignment 2: Sample data for Task 2 Month Purch-Orders Purch-Inv Misc Inv Pmnts Relative Frequency % Jan 122 250 190 280 10.8 Feb 220 170 55 121 7.26 Mar 150 150 45 89 5.56 Apr 160 160 66 89 6.09 May 105 170 50 90 5.32 Jun 190 169 59 129 7.01 Jul 150 170 58 128 6.49 Aug 130 150 49 118 5.73 Sep 260 180 45 79 7.23 Oct 111 190 180 200 8.73 Nov 202 290 220 350 13.62 Dec 210 350 250 450 16.16

Question Set #680

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